South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x940e24e9547ab7b075f844311763a6d9a95a0f8fe69901b7f56d9dc07115ef05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,319 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4922…34a7backed No | 1c | 19,001$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.38 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 65c | 6,576$4,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,274.95 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 36c | 6,221$2,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,212.18 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 77c | 3,434$2,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.5 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 64c | 2,931$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.06 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 64c | 2,108$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.69 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Yes | 65c | 1,753$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.35 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 1,146$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.67 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 35c | 1,036$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.98 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 1c | 835$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…178dbacked No | 65c | 642.86$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.86 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 67c | 432.57$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.83 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 11c | 423.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 35c | 390.38$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.38 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 66c | 292.57$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.95 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 50c | 219.65$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 60c | 157.6$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Yes | 64c | 152$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f9…26fdbacked Yes | 35c | 141.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 65c | 125.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes | 79c | 97.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 34c | 89.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce6…f2e7backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…05cbbacked No | 66c | 69.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 66c | 68.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 213 | 45.1%96 W · 117 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 72c | 68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 65c | 63.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed No | 66c | 59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…dc8cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 74c | 51.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 65c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 59c | 45.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…313fbacked Yes | 46c | 45.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 65c | 39.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 33c | 38.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 68c | 35.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed No | 37c | 34.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c33…d620backed Yes | 66c | 33.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Yes | 65c | 29.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…0b8abacked Yes | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Yes | 63c | 23.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e6…8311backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Yes | 65c | 19.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 62c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-04?this page
- Will CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.