South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c4f91a8f8283c25efdbb6bda8e5304d75492299fa8daa7d0d525d6f4bb2c573
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,872 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,999$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.89 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…eab4backed Yes | 34c | 1,768$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,302$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.64 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 75c | 1,250$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.11 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 990.83$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.46 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 33c | 821.21$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 674.44$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.33 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…3360backed Yes | 12c | 599.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 15c | 233.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 22c | 200.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb036…9a07backed No | 71c | 118.49$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…96e0backed Yes | 32c | 117$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…6e96backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 13c | 86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 67c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…05cbbacked No | 70c | 75.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 18c | 74.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 69c | 72.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…516abacked Yes | 36c | 72.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…88c4backed No | 68c | 69.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb79…91b5backed No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b378backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 32c | 57.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…73eebacked Yes | 32c | 34.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…198ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 35c | 30.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 72c | 23.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-04?this page
- Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-04?Yes won
- Will CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.