South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0009530f0b4e5c7cda831c733df9c09b9dff8772acad7ef65908425773b2e759
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,803 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 33c | 4,715$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.95 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…aed6backed No | 67c | 2,736$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 1,590$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.6 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,346$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.57 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,250$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.27 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 1,149$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.25 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 891.4$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.78 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 67c | 888.87$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.07 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed No | 67c | 886.84$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.84 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed Yes | 33c | 391$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 17c | 301.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…3360backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 33c | 199$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…b641backed Yes | 33c | 128$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc359…8dc8backed Yes | 33c | 122$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b1…3676backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…8792backed Yes | 34c | 116$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…71e9backed Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…3ea1backed No | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 107.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 175 | 60.6%106 W · 69 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 105.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 33c | 92.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 33c | 75.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 38c | 66.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…28c5backed No | 67c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8869…b014backed No | 67c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 34c | 56.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…3d81backed No | 67c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…7afabacked No | 67c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…1a1abacked No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…5f4dbacked No | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 67c | 35.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 33c | 33.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 33c | 31.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…2328backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…f10dbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06f…b0dabacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 24.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…c425backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…5712backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…7210backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…74f6backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…505fbacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…464bbacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc4…8358backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b4…85f7backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1108…3f40backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06e…012dbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdade…8e37backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-04?Yes won
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.