Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9436a49b66ed16805c8c403408e28b429e80592ea0972f871a4990a64b2b486d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6589…39e2backed No | 51c | 4,500$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7523backed Yes | 58c | 2,104$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.83 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 40c | 899$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.51 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 64c | 540.41$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.41 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 47c | 342.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.53 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 18c | 339.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 46c | 322.77$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab8…590fbacked Yes | 77c | 306.9$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ff…b941backed No | 79c | 263.43$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 207.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…4082backed Yes | 39c | 203.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…bcfdbacked Yes | 63c | 200$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 20c | 199.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes | 46c | 170.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 48c | 145$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…2b3ebacked Yes | 41c | 141$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ed…523bbacked Yes | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 50c | 109.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…088dbacked No | 41c | 98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 26c | 96.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 82.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 45c | 81.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…d456backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…5651backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 68.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634b…363bbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xacf4…f2fdbacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 55.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 28c | 52.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 38c | 50.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb032…4e09backed Yes | 49c | 50.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 34c | 44.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Yes | 46c | 42.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 30c | 34.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.