Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca06d93ae4a4d8adc5703e4de071f71492c4a5f39ec2aaab7c421c52ea6644a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 71c | 3,380$2,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.22 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,011$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 1,762$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 2c | 1,104$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.55 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…bcfdbacked Yes | 23c | 1,049$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 2c | 904$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.93 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 34c | 700$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.54 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 20c | 661.46$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.09 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 2c | 616.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.61 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…2b3ebacked Yes | 18c | 461.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 80c | 400$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 75c | 400$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…ea7fbacked No | 25c | 375$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes | 62c | 354.3$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 57c | 339.68$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.43 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Yes | 75c | 285.14$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 37c | 222.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.53 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 65c | 216.64$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…4082backed Yes | 44c | 215.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.9 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 163.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 18c | 160$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.96 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…088dbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…5651backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…47d4backed Yes | 25c | 98.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 64c | 68.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 17c | 59.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…5aa4backed Yes | 50c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…c580backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 27c | 49.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 37c | 44.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes | 35c | 39.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc0…ba48backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf482…3ac8backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.