NHL · resolved market
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9437843805bdf129a995fa1aebf00abc84285c8012cb00b951f231c5cb7a5548
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Switzerlandof Switzerland, Norway
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Norway | 0c | 6,700$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…c41cbacked Norway | 13c | 2,385$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…c74bbacked Norway | 14c | 2,118$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…49afbacked Norway | 11c | 1,957$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…b215backed Norway | 12c | 1,833$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.92 | 164 | 42.7%70 W · 94 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Norway | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Norway | 14c | 1,324$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.29 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Norway | 12c | 1,153$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.36 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Norway | 13c | 1,126$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…0f6dbacked Norway | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed Norway | 11c | 899.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Norway | 13c | 881$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Norway | 11c | 871.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…04febacked Norway | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Norway | 13c | 461.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…f9b5backed Norway | 13c | 385.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…5718backed Norway | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60f…56fdbacked Norway | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…6a3dbacked Norway | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…4933backed Norway | 14c | 271.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e3…0077backed Norway | 12c | 255.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Norway | 11c | 249.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Norway | 12c | 233.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964e…36cfbacked Norway | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…8bf0backed Norway | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Norway | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Norway | 12c | 164.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…1c50backed Norway | 12c | 161.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…88e0backed Norway | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…5d66backed Norway | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x963c…29f1backed Norway | 14c | 137.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…6821backed Norway | 14c | 135.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Norway | 16c | 123.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587e…8dc1backed Norway | 13c | 117.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1778…c5e5backed Norway | 11c | 111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Norway | 12c | 104.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5132…61a7backed Norway | 13c | 104.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Norway | 11c | 104.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879f…f155backed Norway | 13c | 103.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…5b63backed Norway | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 42.8%257 W · 343 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4170…32edbacked Norway | 12c | 99.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…ce4fbacked Norway | 13c | 98.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…3510backed Norway | 16c | 62.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.