Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or higher on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x943b225c705b87f6a03b14196702ba1fa94aa18b3af3f77358be516218ebfe94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 713.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 24c | 256.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 249.63$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 78c | 232.39$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 15c | 221.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 42c | 212.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 210$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 23c | 207$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 24c | 195.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 166.07$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 159.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 58c | 143.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 128.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 126.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 71c | 113.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 22c | 109.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 19c | 109.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 85.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 13c | 77.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 17c | 74.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 79c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 26c | 72.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 77c | 72.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 71.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 71.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 66.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 75c | 60.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 31c | 50.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 49.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 49.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 22c | 48.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 26c | 44.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 33.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 31.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 31.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 78c | 21.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 77c | 21.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 20.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 16.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 76c | 13.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or higher on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.