Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c8a9886185b21808fa017c297c9a22ab7fe94f2e96e718e8a55b0f6e384c47f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 37c | 1,289$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.03 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 63c | 674.36$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.12 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 484.19$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 35c | 264.94$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.59 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 240.22$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 232.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 67c | 169.71$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 33c | 153$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 66c | 152.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 151.22$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 144.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 137.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 28c | 125.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 64c | 122$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 70c | 118.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 117.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 40c | 112.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 30c | 105.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 104.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 61c | 103.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 64c | 82.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 80.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 71.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 42c | 69.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 40c | 62.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…27a6backed No | 63c | 57.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 42c | 55.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 40c | 54.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 50.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 39c | 49.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 31c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 45.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 45.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 45.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 26c | 44.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 43.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 42.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 41.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 40.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 42c | 35.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 34.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…163cbacked No | 59c | 33.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 34c | 33.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 33.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 62c | 31.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 28.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 24.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 57c | 22.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed No | 80c | 18.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 17.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 71c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 71c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or higher on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.