Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb28a617300c60d355f31192e6443e1eea6f28d314026c73f0efc528e47ae9a91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 41c | 2,056$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.2 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 57c | 820.77$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.84 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 484.65$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 341.01$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 54c | 300.73$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.86 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 44c | 232.1$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 49c | 209.87$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 56c | 202.37$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 71c | 189.36$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 186.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 55c | 182.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 179.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 44c | 147.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 60c | 134$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 132.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 129.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 123.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 41c | 121$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 22c | 112$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 108.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 40c | 97.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 91.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 46c | 86.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 40c | 81.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 62c | 80.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 53c | 78.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 44c | 75.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 42c | 75.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 77c | 74.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 39c | 72.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 72.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 68.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 45c | 64.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 64c | 60.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 51c | 57.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 58c | 56.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 55.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed No | 48c | 55.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 54.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…0539backed Yes | 38c | 53.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 41c | 52.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162d…3e63backed Yes | 41c | 49.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 60c | 48.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 33c | 48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 44c | 47.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 44.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 57c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 42c | 41.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 42c | 40.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 40.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 40.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 56c | 40.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 49c | 39.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 37c | 39.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…9c0ebacked No | 65c | 39.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc0…5bf1backed No | 61c | 37.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa66…1c5bbacked Yes | 39c | 37.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 54c | 37.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 37.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 37.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 58c | 36.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 36.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 43c | 33.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…95b2backed No | 59c | 33.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 61c | 33.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 32.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 32.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 41c | 31.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 31.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 60c | 30.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 28.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 60c | 27.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 59c | 26.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 25.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 57c | 25.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 51c | 24.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 19.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 18.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6e…70fabacked No | 56c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or higher on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.