NFL · resolved market
Saints vs. Panthers: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94685a4fbdf6498f3abc7cc140c64d7b16bb994ce3137a816df86f2e65322312
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 52c | 19,633$10,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,520 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Over | 48c | 17,880$8,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,662.27 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 53c | 6,200$3,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.26 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.99 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Over | 50c | 1,950$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 1,950$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 47c | 1,833$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.4 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Over | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.8 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 978.79$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.2 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 605.84$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.21 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Over | 51c | 411.96$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 51c | 203.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 52c | 203.75$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Over | 48c | 114.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…9e3dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x295c…f281backed Over | 51c | 27.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…80d2backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Saints vs. Panthers: O/U 38.5this page
- 1H Spread: Panthers (-3.5)Saints won
- Saints vs. PanthersSaints won
- Saints vs. Panthers: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Saints vs. Panthers: O/U 39.5Under won
- Saints vs. Panthers: O/U 40.5Under won
- Saints vs. Panthers: O/U 41.5Under won
- Spread: Panthers (-3.5)Saints won
- Spread: Panthers (-4.5)Saints won
- Spread: Panthers (-5.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.