Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9473b25d6048b2e1fff5ade66cb6c0f5bbb9baea63a9c9faace973e3ba066c6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalmychataof Kalmychata, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7600…4478backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 4,312$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.25 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed VP.Prodigy | 1c | 3,792$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…b5a5backed VP.Prodigy | 3c | 2,561$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed Kalmychata | 69c | 2,174$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.22 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc24…c8c4backed Kalmychata | 74c | 1,686$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked VP.Prodigy | 26c | 1,320$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.4 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb3…d38ebacked Kalmychata | 62c | 1,272$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.32 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked VP.Prodigy | 30c | 1,207$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.66 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked VP.Prodigy | 26c | 1,152$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.02 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Kalmychata | 73c | 842$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.79 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01a…bf29backed Kalmychata | 66c | 439.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed VP.Prodigy | 33c | 366.14$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Kalmychata | 63c | 314.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Kalmychata | 72c | 302.36$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 300$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed VP.Prodigy | 37c | 267.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked VP.Prodigy | 32c | 215.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Kalmychata | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…377abacked Kalmychata | 70c | 197.41$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 128.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Kalmychata | 78c | 125.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked VP.Prodigy | 33c | 116.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da2…8c2bbacked Kalmychata | 67c | 101$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Kalmychata | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed VP.Prodigy | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…802abacked VP.Prodigy | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed VP.Prodigy | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…abf5backed Kalmychata | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Kalmychata | 64c | 19.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…1a46backed Kalmychata | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…db07backed Kalmychata | 68c | 17.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy (BO3)Kalmychata won
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerKalmychata won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.