UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x948070c6d32a9f0db71e39a74b454915e074db1bf17abbf22fef6d2f476d0b74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 0c | 4,581$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 41c | 999.98$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.99 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 42c | 696.77$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.76 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 57c | 581.98$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.25 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…5f13backed Over | 59c | 480.76$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…83e0backed Over | 59c | 405$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Under | 44c | 234.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Over | 56c | 222$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 43c | 197.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64aa…7f42backed Over | 60c | 133.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 39c | 52.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09bf…b9d6backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd913…2cf7backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…35dfbacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main Card)Kuniev won
- Will Jailton Almeida win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Rizvan Kuniev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.