Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94a29ed2f4d6a379f4c0433ccf40b8e63e3cf7b5256b875328a9006210206542
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827f…7f59backed Yes | 26c | 7,512$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 6,655$5,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.85 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 3,666$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.04 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 26c | 1,925$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.42 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,249$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.14 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…3a70backed Yes | 2c | 1,110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 626.54$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.79 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 75c | 587.4$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.85 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 74c | 499.97$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 23c | 405.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 337.64$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 74c | 296$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…9e25backed Yes | 19c | 227.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2367…c5b3backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Yes | 23c | 206.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c30…7320backed Yes | 22c | 155$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 149.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d78…7defbacked No | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 14c | 120.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 19c | 108.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…51f7backed Yes | 19c | 106.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…b6abbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…ac49backed Yes | 18c | 81.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…807abacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 26c | 44.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 78c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 74c | 21.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-17?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.