TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$184,595

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,419 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes42c14,230$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,229.862842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed No11c13,081$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.3716045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No37c9,744$3,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,566.33,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes41c8,000$3,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,72033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No51c5,613$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,888.231,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No57c4,424$2,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,508.7475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No59c4,214$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496.2611644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes40c3,952$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,363.9914756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No59c3,600$2,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12431145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked No61c3,279$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-58.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7402250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked No62c3,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86010445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No58c2,636$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.559831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes40c2,426$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.7215134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No57c2,346$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.173721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes38c2,267$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.4716652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ee…6605backed Yes61c2,129$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed No34c2,022$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67915540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Yes42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1603221.9%7 W · 25 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-50.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes39c1,965$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.0538748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No58c1,800$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0442948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No25c1,698$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.437129.6%21 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No59c1,629$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.115457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Yes42c1,500$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8706726.9%18 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab1f…423abacked Yes71c1,460$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…298cbacked No34c1,176$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed No60c1,174$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.3916850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No60c1,096$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.8510945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No59c1,079$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.6111056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed No59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5902378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+46.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No54c917.03$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.1151136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…625dbacked Yes41c900$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5316639.4%26 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1434…bb9abacked No59c888.14$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes41c850.83$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.996262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed No59c800$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47222747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No61c768.77$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.9523046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No59c762$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.5817251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes71c710.28$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.512,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Yes42c595.24$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.248846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes63c550$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.538055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2903633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Yes41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.88532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes41c455.95$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.1234342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No59c364.21$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.9456951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b43…8ebdbacked Yes69c362.32$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa383…a2f0backed No14c359.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.989145.1%41 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No27c348.25$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2716542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed No33c333$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8915742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No59c319$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2130054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9d6…7dd0backed No59c318.64$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed No59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1773122.6%7 W · 24 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No25c284.39$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.858946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No59c281.71$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2169851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No59c280.02$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2819446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Yes39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.412050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Yes40c246.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9512538.4%48 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89cb…574cbacked Yes41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x486b…2eaabacked Yes43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.562268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes40c224.84$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec18…8eb4backed No21c220.95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+99.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes38c215.06$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.6356547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No58c213.19$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.296126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe5cf…c348backed Yes43c210$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.71844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes42c188.07$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.082544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Yes41c182.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.933551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a09…3c83backed No41c176.33$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked No59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005560%33 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked No59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No59c168$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.121,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1d…95debacked Yes42c166.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.671040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9475…a29ebacked Yes62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes74c153.85$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+39.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3c30…7320backed Yes41c150$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed No58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x229e…3cb2backed Yes68c147.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bf…231fbacked Yes41c146.34$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.341947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No60c144.78$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8734144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No45c130.15$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6953645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…0b29backed Yes62c129.76$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked No39c128.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.183063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8a9…b7aebacked Yes73c122.74$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a64…6769backed Yes41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.952642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9520436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Yes41c121.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4920753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc6c8…dd64backed Yes42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.051050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes41c119$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2134547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No36c111.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407268.1%49 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No60c104.5$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.76144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No39c101.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6976234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381650%8 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586147.5%29 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8277…d709backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa511…18a3backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+88.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ed…ef48backed Yes63c95.68$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.684100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27e6…3363backed Yes76c93.74$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.