TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x229e…3cb2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
42
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 60 out of 100; worst Stocks at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,938Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+56.4%+$1,092.98
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+63.9%+$63.93
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+96.1%+$48.04
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+49.3%+$49.25
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+55.5%+$122.11
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+104.1%+$20.82
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+270.4%+$54.07
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+33.3%+$13.33
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+163.2%+$32.63
Will West Ham United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+100%+$100
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+49.3%+$98.51
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+79.5%+$79.46
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+44.9%+$26.96
All 21 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+21.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$35.14
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$15.45
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$37.65
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.3
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$37.72
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$21.43
Will South Africa win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+82.9%+$132.69
All 13 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+91.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+61.3%+$24.52
Will Genoa CFC vs. Pisa SC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+122.2%+$24.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hawks vs. Clippersbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+88.7%+$156.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+47.3%+$47.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+40.8%+$40.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.