Tennis · resolved market
Bejlek vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94b56becc66455f75e8697f0cd833af8906fde43be4ecc1ba6b730ccc1ebbe4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 49c | 4,580$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.37 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 51c | 4,410$2,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,162.74 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Over | 50c | 939.69$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.69 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…31bbbacked Under | 50c | 780$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +9.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 604.96$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.27 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Over | 51c | 587.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.28 | 271 | 51.3%139 W · 132 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 48c | 271.7$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Under | 50c | 212$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 306 | 48.4%148 W · 158 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Over | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 51c | 161.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 491 | 51.7%254 W · 237 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 50c | 160.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under | 48c | 86.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 41.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 32.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…f7b2backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Under | 50c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1995backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bejlek vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Cincinnati Open: Completed Match: Sara Bejlek vs Madison KeysYes won
- Cincinnati Open: Sara Bejlek vs Madison KeysSara Bejlek won
- Sara Bejlek vs. Madison Keys: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs KeysKeys won
- Set 2 Winner: Bejlek vs KeysBejlek won
- Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5)Keys won
- Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5)Bejlek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.