Golf · resolved market
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 Hero World Challenge?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94cf6437f345e10db9e16af8fc5f73107b3484d0caada40f0d2108118b131bdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 55c | 8,027$4,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,416.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 51c | 2,561$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.12 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 38c | 1,142$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 51c | 999.5$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Yes | 32c | 976$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 42c | 910.34$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.52 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 42c | 805.03$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.02 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 61c | 740$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 42c | 616.75$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.84 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 43c | 495.05$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.51 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed No | 49c | 319$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.21 | 68 | 7.4%5 W · 63 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 43c | 303$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.71 | 225 | 46.7%105 W · 120 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…e4d2backed No | 49c | 295.65$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.78 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 41c | 271.61$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.24 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…e573backed Yes | 42c | 238.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…c66fbacked Yes | 47c | 220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 52c | 158.65$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 43c | 156.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…dafcbacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…88abbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 49c | 100.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 56c | 100.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 58c | 100.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 71c | 81.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed No | 55c | 70.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…023cbacked No | 50c | 59.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 51.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 295 | 3.7%11 W · 284 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…23edbacked No | 68c | 49.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…5ffbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…156ebacked Yes | 40c | 42.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…33bfbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e8…9bbebacked Yes | 59c | 38.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…624fbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…558dbacked Yes | 39c | 30.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…ce7abacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed No | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…7508backed Yes | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726d…b10dbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 55c | 26.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 Hero World Challenge?this page
- Will Alex Noren win the 2025 Hero World Challenge?No won
- Will Cameron Young win the 2025 Hero World Challenge?No won
- Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2025 Hero World Challenge?Yes won
- Will J.J. Spaun win the 2025 Hero World Challenge?No won
- Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2025 Hero World Challenge?No won
- Will Sepp Straka win the 2025 Hero World Challenge?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.