MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94dd2cd6a9d8ae6808ed97a4296d0f94e4669bdd29a9a18bec78b47961002ad5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d6…3856backed New York Mets | 18c | 31,128$5,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,582.69 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 1,297$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.19 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago Cubs | 78c | 1,266$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.36 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Chicago Cubs | 78c | 1,074$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.89 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 963.49$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.75 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked New York Mets | 19c | 952.86$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.64 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 649.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.34 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 385.4$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed New York Mets | 19c | 299.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked New York Mets | 59c | 217.24$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 207.86$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 200.44$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.26 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Chicago Cubs | 77c | 160.84$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 151.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 62c | 122.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets | 59c | 118.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Chicago Cubs | 77c | 117$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Chicago Cubs | 77c | 92.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked New York Mets | 48c | 87.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 85.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets | 59c | 84.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 64.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…9062backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 64.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed New York Mets | 23c | 59.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 53.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 58c | 52.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Mets | 59c | 36.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 35.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 26.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…b73dbacked Chicago Cubs | 77c | 22.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Chicago Cubs | 77c | 22.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Chicago Cubs | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Chicago Cubs | 77c | 16.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 14.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Chicago Cubs | 77c | 13.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.