MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0529398633bb9f61f80f26384570e1f1a17469b5aa8d84f57bfc0d76c24e9ee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 52c | 12,600$6,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,048 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Over | 54c | 7,418$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,418.39 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 46c | 3,546$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.47 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 54c | 2,794$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.58 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…5ee4backed Under | 46c | 2,778$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.91 | 285 | 53.3%152 W · 133 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 75c | 1,578$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.07 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Over | 36c | 1,069$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.44 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…a6e1backed Under | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 995.2$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.55 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 899.19$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 846.6$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.5 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 46c | 652.15$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 52c | 599.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 447.42$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.29 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 54c | 404.11$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.89 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 48c | 392$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.16 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 52c | 362.56$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.03 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 47c | 362.56$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 54c | 327$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.42 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 290.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.77 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 53c | 200.16$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 49c | 177.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Under | 46c | 173.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 154.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 151.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 14c | 124.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 111$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 60c | 99.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…2c8bbacked Under | 48c | 93.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 52c | 83.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Over | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 68.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 45c | 66.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 52c | 61.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 53c | 47.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 32c | 45.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Over | 52c | 38.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabc3…10aebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 47c | 36.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…4928backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed Over | 59c | 22.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…7b57backed Over | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.