MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fb84df17ac51e854c16cf91937d11993c3809c8519ee3e78895e155e41fb2f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 11c | 14,617$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.86 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 61c | 1,009$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…a6e1backed Under | 33c | 991.91$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.36 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 58c | 559.17$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.32 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 516$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 20c | 515.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 29c | 113.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 42c | 100.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 74c | 71.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 18c | 55.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…36abbacked Over | 79c | 13.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51d…514cbacked Over | 79c | 13.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.