Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94edf77f3bc1f6435562499d50c5d953d456a56250b6ca046c6b3e1acc044332
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40d5…79a5backed Over | 14c | 2,703$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 22c | 2,383$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 22c | 2,314$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.34 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 21c | 1,505$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.99 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Over | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 22c | 995.21$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.41 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…2f90backed Over | 17c | 838.41$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 78c | 720.36$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.72 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 21c | 599.94$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Over | 22c | 489.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 4c | 483.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 22c | 416.17$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 78c | 378.98$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Under | 79c | 304.57$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 78c | 303.13$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 328 | 54.3%178 W · 150 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Under | 79c | 249.97$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 22c | 216.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 18c | 199.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 22c | 194.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 122 | 32%39 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over | 22c | 134.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…f549backed Under | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Over | 23c | 103.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 79c | 93.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa23…7afabacked Over | 22c | 78.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…de53backed Over | 23c | 62.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 79c | 23.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 78c | 18.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 78c | 15.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 78c | 15.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Under | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.