MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9517a5bb03ecd2ff51c947e620e07e92dca4ff780608b6d54739bb5de8720271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 48c | 7,950$3,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,132.7 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…bbd6backed Under | 55c | 4,498$2,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 45c | 3,958$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.01 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 53c | 3,452$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.8 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 50c | 2,661$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.68 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 2,357$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.59 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 52c | 2,011$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.4 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 52c | 1,852$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.08 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 48c | 1,672$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.93 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,279$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.93 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 50c | 1,063$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.36 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 50c | 1,020$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.75 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 736.01$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.73 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 49c | 396.48$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.21 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 319.56$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.66 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 51c | 196.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 126.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…76ccbacked Over | 46c | 125.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 50c | 117$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 50c | 105.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Under | 50c | 97.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 48c | 73.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 66.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 52c | 55.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Over | 55c | 44.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 48c | 38.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…36c6backed Under | 48c | 30.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 27.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 25.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 23.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…069bbacked Over | 54c | 18.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.