MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aafe43c860b153f4e8623b01b4d9f049f93142fd1182598842cdb74e6c91aad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 58c | 12,277$7,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,164.13 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 6,518$2,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,737.7 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 43c | 4,070$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,741.93 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 55c | 3,344$1,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504.94 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 1,334$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.23 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Over | 45c | 1,062$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.9 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 43c | 1,025$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.93 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Under | 57c | 858.55$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.53 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over | 43c | 846.01$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.43 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 467.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Over | 43c | 449.21$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.16 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 44c | 397.3$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.49 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…aa33backed Over | 44c | 329.45$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 43c | 225.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 55c | 223.81$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.72 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 50c | 145.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 57c | 125.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…f5ddbacked Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 551 | 46.8%258 W · 293 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 56c | 90.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 86.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 43c | 82.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Over | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Under | 58c | 65.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 44c | 62.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Over | 44c | 60.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 46c | 54.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 56c | 39.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Under | 57c | 34.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under | 58c | 32.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 42c | 24.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 63c | 24.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked Under | 58c | 20.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.