MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda750f39161bf88f0e4a260f5ee28b20c1c4f5586023ff64f24f517d32dc3504
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Detroit Tigers | 9c | 472.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Detroit Tigers | 20c | 233.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 183.64$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 142.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e7…19a8backed Detroit Tigers | 33c | 87.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 86.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 67c | 76.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 20c | 65.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Detroit Tigers | 31c | 51.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 43.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…f5ddbacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 35.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 14.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.