MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07efb5d92c32977ae37e01facac61e7761466e68296ea5932e0c23f398a4f0fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd1…9a1fbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 2,828$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Boston Red Sox | 1c | 2,775$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6224…c89bbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 1,506$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 1,333$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.88 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 1,100$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Boston Red Sox | 13c | 827.32$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 14c | 644.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 526.03$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.36 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 11c | 221.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 210.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 187.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Boston Red Sox | 13c | 106.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Boston Red Sox | 13c | 106.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Boston Red Sox | 13c | 101.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 82.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Boston Red Sox | 13c | 77.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Boston Red Sox | 13c | 77.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 77.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 74.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 54.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 52.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 51.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…9419backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 50.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Detroit Tigers | 65c | 48.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 44.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Boston Red Sox | 30c | 44.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 43.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 38.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Detroit Tigers | 65c | 32.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Detroit Tigers | 69c | 27.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Detroit Tigers | 77c | 16.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.