Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95266c88d2c6a26f6717f6925dad649913f056e622f414885fd60f39413e92dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 51c | 360.63$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.59 | 881 | 24.1%212 W · 669 L | -40.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 278.01$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 58c | 229.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.19 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 43c | 209.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 209.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 202.59$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 14c | 179.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 167.39$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 115.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 112.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 21c | 105.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 104$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 92.49$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 39c | 90.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 43c | 87.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 60c | 85.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 30c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 50c | 80.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 80.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 57c | 72.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 65.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 62.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 42c | 57.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 53.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 54c | 43.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 31c | 39.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 39.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 39.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 53c | 27.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…a12fbacked Yes | 43c | 25.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 59c | 25.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 43c | 25.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 235 | 59.6%140 W · 95 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 23.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…fd46backed No | 60c | 22.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 50c | 22.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 22.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5503…1248backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…5c65backed Yes | 51c | 19.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.