Chess · resolved market
Speed Chess QF: Firouzja vs Nepomniachtchi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95280a3f14bdfd241a7fde705c26e2b121ca6500f5e2303489633d9679c7fac9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Firouzjaof Firouzja, Nepomniachtchi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nepomniachtchi | 0c | 11,230$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Firouzja | 78c | 1,528$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.72 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa5…6292backed Nepomniachtchi | 22c | 1,225$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x626b…6780backed Nepomniachtchi | 15c | 1,149$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…06b7backed Firouzja | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…302dbacked Nepomniachtchi | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Firouzja | 69c | 340.76$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.09 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…06b0backed Nepomniachtchi | 34c | 296.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…01a8backed Nepomniachtchi | 24c | 282.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nepomniachtchi | 22c | 261$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…dc1bbacked Firouzja | 76c | 240$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17c…b09cbacked Firouzja | 79c | 113.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Firouzja | 70c | 108.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked Nepomniachtchi | 28c | 103.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…d43fbacked Firouzja | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…149bbacked Firouzja | 72c | 95.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…e8c0backed Nepomniachtchi | 26c | 95.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d3…9daebacked Nepomniachtchi | 27c | 55.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0799…31e6backed Firouzja | 76c | 54.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…d95fbacked Firouzja | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Nepomniachtchi | 27c | 41.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Firouzja | 71c | 36.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Firouzja | 67c | 34.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…8fc2backed Firouzja | 64c | 31.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Firouzja | 70c | 29.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…ddabbacked Firouzja | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…9263backed Firouzja | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.