Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Execration (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9531136a7e6ae1917e4804114997cba6a1cbe4ba541feda44ad370beab1a6ee5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Execrationof PlayTime, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed PlayTime | 50c | 400.13$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…73c7backed PlayTime | 51c | 395.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Execration | 51c | 347.04$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.04 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42cd…2359backed PlayTime | 49c | 203.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Execration | 49c | 202.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.13 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Execration | 49c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed PlayTime | 50c | 164.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Execration | 53c | 159.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…6182backed PlayTime | 56c | 141.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed Execration | 51c | 135.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 263 | 43%113 W · 150 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Execration | 46c | 134.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.74 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Execration | 50c | 115$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed PlayTime | 48c | 102.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Execration | 52c | 99.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked PlayTime | 50c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Execration | 53c | 76.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed PlayTime | 49c | 62.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Execration | 51c | 60.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed PlayTime | 47c | 50.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…155ebacked Execration | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Execration | 56c | 42.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Execration | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked PlayTime | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Execration | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Execration (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future PlayoffsPlayTime won
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration - Game 1 WinnerExecration won
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration - Game 2 WinnerPlayTime won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.