Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9540c7da3e785bd11773e044c4f396450e232071525dd3b9ce475dd258ce47bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 2,417$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.12 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…ac67backed Over | 77c | 1,911$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 45c | 1,721$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 17c | 1,656$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.56 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 53c | 980.12$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.19 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 939.61$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.51 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 14c | 341$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.29 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 50c | 318.42$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.03 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 63c | 316.62$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 66c | 297.56$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.12 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 66c | 296.77$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.96 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 62c | 217.54$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 44c | 174.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Over | 77c | 116.19$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 69c | 113.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 113.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 74c | 98.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 73c | 92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce2…9787backed Over | 25c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 78c | 71.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 73c | 52.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 39c | 49.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 64c | 48.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 47.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 75c | 36.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 38c | 34.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 36c | 28.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed Over | 68c | 21.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…a460backed Over | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Over | 77c | 15.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.