Mls · resolved market

CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb163496325c66027df5165ca797ed01dda3763b8c02eecb1f377961f5d72f805

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $46,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,677 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Mls
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over	54c	12,102$6,479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,478.53	278	37.8%105 W · 173 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Under	47c	4,120$1,936 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,183.6	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74d0…de45backed Under	51c	3,796$1,951 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,844.98	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00a0…bf76backed Over	34c	3,663$1,245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,245.36	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	36cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	46c	3,250$1,509 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,741.01	971	46.1%448 W · 523 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	59c	3,180$1,866 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,313.31	3,012	43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L	-29.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	30c	2,733$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$824.9	580	43.6%253 W · 327 L	-12.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	48c	2,437$1,167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,270.87	783	44.4%348 W · 435 L	-30.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2fb…610cbacked Under	46c	2,180$1,003 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,177.2	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	46c	2,160$987 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,173	1,270	48%610 W · 660 L	-7.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over	53c	2,151$1,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,140.21	135	53.3%72 W · 63 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e01…0875backed Under	47c	2,060$968 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,091.8	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+2.3wins	+0.19per pick	47cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over	54c	1,876$1,013 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,013.09	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	63cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9762…73fbbacked Over	53c	1,691$896 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$896	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…abcebacked Under	47c	1,500$705 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$794.83	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over	25c	1,392$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.99	62	22.6%14 W · 48 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	60c	1,345$802 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$542.5	1,444	36.8%532 W · 912 L	-12.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over	52c	1,100$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.91	50	42%21 W · 29 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Over	45c	1,094$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.5	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-5.7wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Under	71c	1,079$763 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.14	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under	47c	980.47$465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515.61	89	46.1%41 W · 48 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under	49c	894.5$437 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$457.35	714	43.7%312 W · 402 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	46c	761$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410.94	139	48.9%68 W · 71 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d0…8814backed Over	67c	734.24$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.02	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	54c	723.75$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330.26	288	51.4%148 W · 140 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc952…3c89backed Over	45c	635.88$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over	37c	524.77$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.4	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-4.2wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Under	46c	509.31$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$275.03	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under	48c	476.55$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.45	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over	48c	451.16$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.52	443	50.6%224 W · 219 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d4…8e51backed Over	26c	381.79$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.27	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-25%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over	45c	300$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	108	53.7%58 W · 50 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Over	55c	300$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	70	31.4%22 W · 48 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under	66c	296.83$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.92	222	63.1%140 W · 82 L	+12.2wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked Under	55c	291.9$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.36	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over	25c	239.97$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.61	526	39.5%208 W · 318 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cc4…5a94backed Under	47c	213$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.89	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf4…40fabacked Over	48c	201.83$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.88	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Under	55c	196.43$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.42	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under	36c	167.09$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.73	304	44.1%134 W · 170 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under	48c	163.08$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.8	94	37.2%35 W · 59 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	49c	161.3$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.51	66	62.1%41 W · 25 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf375…a60cbacked Over	58c	156.3$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.66	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd876…4c8bbacked Over	28c	149.85$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.34	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Over	56c	120$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.2	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	67c	104.23$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.91	1,880	36.6%688 W · 1,192 L	-7.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under	48c	100.92$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.48	100	46%46 W · 54 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d63…2e49backed Over	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Under	47c	99.99$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.99	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe727…f6e1backed Under	48c	97.49$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.69	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	55c	97.3$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.79	461	56.2%259 W · 202 L	+13.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over	49c	96.94$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	132	43.9%58 W · 74 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under	47c	83.27$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.13	89	42.7%38 W · 51 L	-7.8wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	45c	83$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.78	1,301	51.2%666 W · 635 L	-19.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2494…17b3backed Under	47c	81.57$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.83	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	62c	70.78$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.91	392	34.4%135 W · 257 L	-47.2wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-31%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	36c	68.23$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.67	1,009	46.2%466 W · 543 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4148…4397backed Over	45c	65.58$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.51	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.7wins	-0.25per pick	43cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ec1…3f7bbacked Under	48c	62.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.54	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Over	48c	60.55$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.06	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over	54c	58.87$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.76	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a8…daabbacked Over	53c	55.01$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.15	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-6.2wins	-0.21per pick	57cpaid	-38%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	47c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	351	49.6%174 W · 177 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	53c	49.51$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.24	87	39.1%34 W · 53 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeffa…5fe1backed Under	47c	45.72$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.35	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+113.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe61a…e104backed Over	58c	45.03$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95ed…b7adbacked Under	57c	44.92$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.31	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under	46c	42.15$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.76	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	-4.7wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under	47c	38.73$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.43	105	33.3%35 W · 70 L	-10.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-43%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x03f5…3047backed Over	53c	36.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f02…8af6backed Under	47c	35.06$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.58	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+108.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	46c	33.88$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.39	681	50.8%346 W · 335 L	+12.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Under	74c	32.6$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.51	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	54c	32.53$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.56	429	47.1%202 W · 227 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…af0cbacked Over	45c	32.23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Over	55c	32.05$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.68	166	56.6%94 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Under	46c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Under	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	89	34.8%31 W · 58 L	-16.6wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under	54c	24.99$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	259	34.4%89 W · 170 L	-28.1wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x033c…b4afbacked Over	53c	23.46$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.43	35	74.3%26 W · 9 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	68cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc93c…95cabacked Under	48c	21.62$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.24	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bfe…0741backed Over	55c	20.84$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Under	58c	17.86$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.47	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5this page
CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event