Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x529950a715d9c2ce3454074c12894dfcceae129cfd00d15a0695981017dc0cad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 32c | 5,320$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.04 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc8…dc52backed Under | 71c | 3,710$2,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 3,604$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.47 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…5b1ebacked Over | 29c | 3,592$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 75c | 2,921$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.3 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 13c | 2,284$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.81 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 67c | 1,324$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.91 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 33c | 1,164$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.91 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 1,011$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.18 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 32c | 965.26$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.29 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 67c | 363.56$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.23 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 336.14$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.66 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 35c | 299.61$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 23c | 296.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 68c | 294.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 32c | 290$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 34c | 279.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 68c | 278.18$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 68c | 275.53$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 68c | 255.54$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 69c | 242.38$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 31c | 182.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 68c | 147.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 65c | 138.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 67c | 135.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 73c | 112.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 31c | 64.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 35c | 63.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 69c | 42.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 35c | 35.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 68c | 28.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 69c | 25.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Under | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…42f0backed Under | 69c | 22.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 68c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 68c | 19.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 68c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 69c | 14.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.