Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x957ea56ff076d2005795fe5aa949be6f5a4abda0f203b6afb7b825855a50dae5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 8c | 14,988$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 9c | 10,068$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.79 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 2c | 7,857$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.71 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 8c | 1,546$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…ad9abacked Yes | 8c | 1,085$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,062$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.28 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 11c | 1,004$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 8c | 900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 8c | 820.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6950…86a1backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Yes | 15c | 626.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 5c | 605.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked No | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc526…bf92backed Yes | 10c | 505.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7441…cb79backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Yes | 7c | 454.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Yes | 7c | 454.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 9c | 444.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 8c | 425$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…4e9abacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…6dd0backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Yes | 4c | 343.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9d62backed Yes | 14c | 331.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc328…d945backed Yes | 8c | 280.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…cf23backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…6ad4backed Yes | 9c | 233.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 8c | 222$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe6…7c8fbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 9c | 191.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed Yes | 17c | 188.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 8c | 167.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19df…4404backed Yes | 8c | 146$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…add6backed Yes | 9c | 132.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0203…270dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…47debacked Yes | 17c | 76.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Yes | 18c | 73.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 14c | 71.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-11?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.