Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92446115b5425fb9ec40970428af7566bed4fc3ed51aee94236bf22eddef11cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 3c | 17,554$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.74 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 5c | 14,500$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 4c | 9,093$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 4c | 8,368$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.57 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 5c | 5,343$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.08 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 4c | 5,050$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5eb…9b25backed Yes | 5c | 4,614$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 2c | 4,609$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 4c | 4,309$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.71 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,482$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…03a5backed Yes | 4c | 3,056$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d51…4946backed Yes | 2c | 2,999$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x921b…e267backed Yes | 4c | 2,379$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 3c | 2,303$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…cd55backed Yes | 4c | 1,802$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 4c | 1,745$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Yes | 4c | 1,700$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…6ad4backed Yes | 5c | 1,393$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,282$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…71dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,123$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc328…d945backed Yes | 7c | 1,121$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…9133backed Yes | 4c | 1,112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…2a61backed Yes | 5c | 1,111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,106$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 3c | 1,040$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…271ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,020$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0b…ac22backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 4c | 930.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc526…bf92backed Yes | 5c | 921.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 4c | 900.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 5c | 867$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b65…67e5backed Yes | 4c | 815.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 5c | 756.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 4c | 628.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…2b20backed Yes | 4c | 609.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…fca3backed Yes | 5c | 609.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…6dd0backed Yes | 2c | 602.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Yes | 3c | 585.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 4c | 499.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 4c | 487.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Yes | 3c | 435.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…4894backed Yes | 5c | 409.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…2979backed Yes | 4c | 390.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…555cbacked Yes | 6c | 338.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…ae35backed Yes | 5c | 323.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb038…ff5fbacked Yes | 4c | 322.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2591…e256backed Yes | 5c | 315.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 4c | 293.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 5c | 246$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 9c | 221.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0763…3177backed Yes | 5c | 215.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…0bb8backed Yes | 6c | 210.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1523…2e5fbacked Yes | 6c | 195.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…a8f5backed Yes | 10c | 125.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-11?this page
- Will FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.