Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95807d2a6dc535db13f526879c4e946b3083f022eb38460214c6e45f5eadd606
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 412.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 263.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…586bbacked Yes | 8c | 246.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 15c | 175$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 22c | 172.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 159.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 152.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 139.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 20c | 110.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 100.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 78c | 97.12$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 16c | 95.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 23c | 88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 13c | 84.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 26c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 72.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 16c | 68.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 16c | 67.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 64.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed Yes | 18c | 62.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 61.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 20c | 50.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 48.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 46.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…1986backed Yes | 23c | 44.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.43per pick | 54cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…ea97backed No | 77c | 37.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 80c | 35.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 32.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 71c | 23.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…559ebacked No | 76c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 14.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.