TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa89b…ea97

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
24
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Weather, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 56 out of 100; worst UFC at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+30.5%+$8.75
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.24
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.64
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$45.74
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.29
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$10.68
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$13.6
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.69
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$13.78
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$4.16
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+102.3%+$14.36
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackhawks vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+72.4%+$19.5
Sharks vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+100%+$19.61
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$27.38
Raptors vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+88.7%+$8.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Sep 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$18.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+127.3%+$19.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ankalaev vs. Pereirabacked Ankalaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.79
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.