Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2b3269e7e7b5f11bc84a8d028c08e64f506cb7563506872f9b9268aa550e56a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,036$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 13c | 460.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 9c | 312.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 10c | 297.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 294.39$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 73c | 167.03$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 17c | 136.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 126.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 12c | 118.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 111.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 105.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 16c | 102.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 28c | 100.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 99.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 17c | 73.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 80c | 71.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 54.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 30c | 48.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 24.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…42fcbacked No | 75c | 23.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 63 | 84.1%53 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 17.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…6ef7backed No | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…ea97backed No | 74c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed No | 69c | 15.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 80c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.