Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee983048cbef2b78a4ccd2174a54c69c0715b2f498373c3423d05b8ea198cdf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,103$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 273.09$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.59 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 25c | 265.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 33c | 211.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 175.4$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 152.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 122$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 36c | 121.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 116.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 116$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 110.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 21c | 109.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 30c | 98.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 80.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 78c | 72.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 70.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 70.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 69.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 67.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 62.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 74c | 62.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 32c | 58.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 31c | 47.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 62c | 37.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 30.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 24.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed No | 74c | 24.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 72c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 61c | 17.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 16.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed No | 75c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.