Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8a20f822750fbfe16458946b5ca46d7628488bfcf7df335cd533bbb2d7d7df5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 80c | 1,328$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.91 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,142$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 674.26$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 17c | 503.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 72c | 467.98$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 16c | 387.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 376.53$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 24c | 319$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 9c | 286.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 267.63$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 28c | 251.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 19c | 210.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 202$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 181$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 80c | 170.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 158.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 146.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 20c | 139.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 137.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 16c | 135.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 22c | 133.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 13c | 125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 27c | 112.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 104.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 25c | 93.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 88.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 22c | 82.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…8a39backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 71.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…0a58backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 46.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 45.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 30c | 44.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 40.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 31c | 39.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 34c | 38.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 33.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 32c | 32.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 68c | 30.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 80c | 27.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…ea97backed No | 73c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 75c | 25.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 24.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 78c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e2…db13backed No | 73c | 18.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 72c | 18.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 70c | 18.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 17.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.