TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,301
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,301 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes26c1,746$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.6531043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes27c553.35$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes24c368.67$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.982,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No76c346.07$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.14,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c333.59$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.36,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No70c315.7$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.594,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No78c300.59$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.168560%51 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No77c283.05$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.158152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes15c263.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.51,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes14c250.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9535325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes16c235.85$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.78,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c233.58$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.044,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes23c213.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.751,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No73c199.98$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c181$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.925,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c178.92$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.769,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No79c175.11$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.234,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No78c161.01$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.191,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d2…9145backed Yes14c153.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.43859.4%8 W · 77 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed Yes18c147.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7416129.2%47 W · 114 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c144.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.796,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No71c140.79$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.291,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No70c139.35$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes23c135.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.498134.6%28 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes21c128.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0020…16b9backed No79c126.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8618333.3%61 W · 122 L-17.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-33.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes28c121.62$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7613838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe9…56d9backed No61c120$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.45570.9%39 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes27c120$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.820341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No77c112.73$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes14c104.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.442544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes41c100.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.426540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No80c97.76$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.872466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc29…66b4backed Yes23c91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.935448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes18c82.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.155954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f3d…9f2fbacked Yes16c82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes40c75.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010746.7%50 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No66c73.01$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.832,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No75c70.92$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.441,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes24c70.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1744757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No75c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.427056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6871…7cb8backed Yes25c66.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.597953.2%42 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No75c65.62$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes17c65.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.312,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No79c64.59$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.842,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No75c60.28$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.072,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.81,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes21c59.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5130442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes18c55.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No79c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5253855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1857948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1370148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.83,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c0…d4dabacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.25381.1%43 W · 10 L+8.5wins+0.16per pick65cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No66c49.27$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6499962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes24c48.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.422114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes22c47.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.491,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No75c44.16$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0414043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No78c41.8$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.212,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.644366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb2…d640backed No76c38.21$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.174961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2837…fd84backed No79c37.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.774161%25 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked No51c37.14$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.210966.1%72 W · 37 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No75c35.29$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7790555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No57c34.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.951,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No80c31.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.351,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No79c30.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5654853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.580275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.21,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No76c29.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.142,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No75c28.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.262,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x76c9…39aabacked No63c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.32650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No77c24.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.522,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No72c23.57$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.64,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.22,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91f4…d093backed No77c19.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.615032%48 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No78c18.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.121,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No76c18.31$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.313,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No71c17.65$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.121,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f5b…d27ebacked No68c17.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f64…9600backed Yes58c17.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0310758.9%63 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No79c16.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.411,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No76c14.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.432,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No74c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6494066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa143…1303backed No80c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.62766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.