Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a201c6833e4c48c10087126c5f62251495ddcfa8e3b4abb4dbc5dd594f78e34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda33…daccbacked No | 51c | 4,833$2,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,475.79 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 59c | 2,607$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.57 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 61c | 2,577$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.26 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 49c | 1,565$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.75 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 7c | 1,171$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 811.47$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 78c | 763.5$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 49c | 761.52$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.52 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 41c | 507.51$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.29 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 40c | 465$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 41c | 450$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.5 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 52c | 386.5$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.98 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 58c | 346.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 336.4$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 300.44$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 38c | 272.87$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.18 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 51c | 267$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 261.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 49c | 261.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.12 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 240.74$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 232.35$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 14c | 225.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.61 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 206.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 205.34$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 181$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 53c | 167.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 166$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 151.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 146.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 146$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 145.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 48c | 141.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 43c | 140.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 76c | 126.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 43c | 120$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 119$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 113.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 45c | 112.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…598ebacked Yes | 40c | 108.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 51c | 102.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 48c | 100.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 47c | 100.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 48c | 99.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…38fabacked Yes | 40c | 96.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 46c | 91.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 59c | 89.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 29c | 87.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 57c | 87.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 38c | 83.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 83.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 46c | 82.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 80.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed No | 58c | 72.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 59c | 68.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 45c | 67.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 65.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 63.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 63c | 63.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 70c | 58.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 51c | 57.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…49c3backed No | 63c | 55.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 44c | 54.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 26c | 50.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa5…c42fbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.