TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,749 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4292…0fb8backed Yes27c1,321$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.28837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes4c742.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.57933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f33…8da9backed Yes16c515.83$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.229944.4%44 W · 55 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+25.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No49c475.06$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.8117243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x609f…ada6backed Yes3c458.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ebf…a0ddbacked No49c341.33$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes51c319.68$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.993,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1235232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb7e…1757backed Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3611332.7%37 W · 76 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3928718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No48c264.79$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.63,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No54c257.15$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.42,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7552…5845backed Yes11c249.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.13234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c225.72$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes7c222.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.239262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xe1cc…f7d4backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf730…8a0abacked Yes51c194.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes48c192.72$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2716036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes55c181.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No42c162.95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.31,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes47c152.81$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.432548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes17c150$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes39c149.08$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9526…8f87backed Yes54c147.28$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803941%16 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes14c143.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.114330.2%13 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes16c140$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.82240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes50c139.74$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes54c130$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3620631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes37c124.36$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9110542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes26c124$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3323633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes26c123.34$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.910531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No43c118.9$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.152,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Yes23c109.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.758017.5%14 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No56c107.71$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.518551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0653…0124backed Yes16c105.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e63…e468backed Yes54c101.8$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.68475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes50c100.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.016538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b1…4d9fbacked Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a6b…6c65backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+124.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf697…b5c4backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-53.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4857044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed Yes50c98.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.674852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd828…d49abacked Yes58c92.46$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf43c…989bbacked Yes51c90$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.92737%10 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9231…b267backed Yes43c90$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.33063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes44c89.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.392028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd59d…dcffbacked Yes53c84.45$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.71450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9736…64b8backed No56c84$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.110151.5%52 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes48c83.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes52c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.67823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes59c78.31$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9110650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No49c77.58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7434457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26c9…0cd3backed Yes60c77.42$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.82425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c5a…8ee2backed Yes57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes32c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.793034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No62c69.98$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.591,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes42c62.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.110956%61 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bc…a993backed Yes50c60.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa916…8002backed Yes46c60.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.441145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0531567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…6732backed Yes54c59.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.73243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No46c58.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.841,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No48c57.62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.727,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No76c56.02$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes37c55.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.325536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcff5…5237backed Yes55c54.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Yes55c54.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes50c52.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.193432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e15…3ebcbacked No64c51.21$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac6…b663backed No50c50.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.36741.8%28 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes53c50.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5126828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x536d…3152backed No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.512073.3%88 W · 32 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x02ca…3f6ebacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.527246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a34…905fbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.550%0 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.52128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1192…634cbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9c8…f330backed Yes53c48.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.55545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes54c46.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes49c45.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2254037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes49c45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.058551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes55c44.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.411436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabba…58bbbacked Yes50c44.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.521471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0157…98dfbacked Yes50c44.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd9c…8a0abacked Yes59c42.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.11425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d7…72e4backed Yes55c41.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe1a…e7f0backed Yes56c41.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f0f…5ea4backed Yes67c41.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab0a…36b1backed Yes48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.23342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0467…846fbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9642…a6a4backed No61c39.42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.463452.9%18 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6055…d5febacked Yes54c39.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f64…2467backed No51c38.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x385e…0341backed Yes53c37.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.242642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes27c37.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.161,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef5e…7bb7backed Yes51c36.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.