Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe385f38dd1f5e6fa77128991bb0cc425d063964047dc7e013cd566e3fe6fdcc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4292…0fb8backed Yes | 27c | 1,321$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 4c | 742.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 16c | 515.83$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 49c | 475.06$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.81 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…ada6backed Yes | 3c | 458.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebf…a0ddbacked No | 49c | 341.33$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 51c | 319.68$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 264.79$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 257.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 11c | 249.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 225.72$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 222.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…f7d4backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 51c | 194.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 48c | 192.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 55c | 181.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 42c | 162.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 47c | 152.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 39c | 149.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 54c | 147.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 14c | 143.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes | 16c | 140$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 139.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 54c | 130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 37c | 124.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 26c | 124$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 26c | 123.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 43c | 118.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 23c | 109.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 56c | 107.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0653…0124backed Yes | 16c | 105.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e63…e468backed Yes | 54c | 101.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 50c | 100.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…4d9fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6b…6c65backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…b5c4backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed Yes | 50c | 98.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd828…d49abacked Yes | 58c | 92.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed Yes | 43c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 44c | 89.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd59d…dcffbacked Yes | 53c | 84.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 56c | 84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 59c | 78.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 49c | 77.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…0cd3backed Yes | 60c | 77.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…8ee2backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 69.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 42c | 62.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bc…a993backed Yes | 50c | 60.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…8002backed Yes | 46c | 60.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 54c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 46c | 58.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 57.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 56.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 37c | 55.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff5…5237backed Yes | 55c | 54.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 55c | 54.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 50c | 52.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e15…3ebcbacked No | 64c | 51.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 50c | 50.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 53c | 50.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02ca…3f6ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…905fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 53c | 48.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 54c | 46.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 49c | 45.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 55c | 44.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabba…58bbbacked Yes | 50c | 44.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…98dfbacked Yes | 50c | 44.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9c…8a0abacked Yes | 59c | 42.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…72e4backed Yes | 55c | 41.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…e7f0backed Yes | 56c | 41.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0f…5ea4backed Yes | 67c | 41.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…846fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…a6a4backed No | 61c | 39.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6055…d5febacked Yes | 54c | 39.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f64…2467backed No | 51c | 38.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…0341backed Yes | 53c | 37.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 37.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…7bb7backed Yes | 51c | 36.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.