Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b04ec19d0a54db1cc579514026d642dec8a220d8ab0e659e8854a35a2358136
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfde2…b8cebacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed Yes | 12c | 4,041$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.38 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…2b78backed Yes | 1c | 1,121$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 39c | 864.48$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.23 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 25c | 782.47$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.13 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 17c | 762.98$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.96 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…d9dfbacked Yes | 7c | 736.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…b277backed No | 69c | 675.22$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 3c | 670.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 524.62$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d2…6be3backed Yes | 5c | 499.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 62c | 443.93$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.03 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 3c | 426.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a15…32dcbacked Yes | 11c | 408.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 400.7$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked Yes | 14c | 393.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 58c | 388.71$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.04 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 35c | 345.36$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.26 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 39c | 321.5$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.3 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 19c | 315.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 16c | 304.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e63…e468backed No | 64c | 289.56$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 33c | 278.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde81…c5dbbacked Yes | 37c | 270.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 23c | 263.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 45c | 256.91$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.01 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 253.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 16c | 236.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 78c | 230.74$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 40c | 202.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed Yes | 10c | 194.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 52c | 188.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 184.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 54c | 183.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked No | 75c | 182.28$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f7…7df6backed Yes | 8c | 169.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa395…59cabacked Yes | 34c | 164.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…0341backed Yes | 15c | 156.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 15c | 153.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 36c | 149$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 61c | 148.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 69c | 141.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 14c | 141.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 140.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…72a5backed Yes | 13c | 139.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 7c | 137.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 137.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Yes | 39c | 136.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…7bb7backed Yes | 29c | 127.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 9c | 122$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…a83dbacked Yes | 56c | 119.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 24c | 116.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c9…1936backed Yes | 11c | 113.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed Yes | 13c | 113.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 32c | 111$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 32c | 111$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 15c | 109.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes | 50c | 105.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 10c | 104.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 73c | 102.9$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…4159backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…8002backed Yes | 11c | 99.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1313backed Yes | 18c | 93.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 35c | 92.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 85.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 40c | 79.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 59c | 76.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…846fbacked Yes | 27c | 75.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes | 27c | 75.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 55c | 72.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed Yes | 22c | 66.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2a…22b9backed Yes | 17c | 63.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6b…6c65backed Yes | 36c | 55.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 42c | 53.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…c252backed Yes | 44c | 50.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…15edbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…905fbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…ab61backed Yes | 37c | 45.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ae…b4b9backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0782…8376backed Yes | 33c | 36.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…96c1backed No | 62c | 35.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…03b5backed Yes | 35c | 34.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…ada6backed Yes | 58c | 34.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.