TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,212

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,134 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfde2…b8cebacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7660…c588backed Yes12c4,041$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.382462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+56.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes2c2,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.518036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes5c1,400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.973,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b1…2b78backed Yes1c1,121$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes39c864.48$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.2348331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes25c782.47$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1347834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes17c762.98$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9671823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb7d…d9dfbacked Yes7c736.19$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71fb…b277backed No69c675.22$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.22757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes3c670.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3955919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c524.62$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc1d2…6be3backed Yes5c499.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes22c450$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910227.5%28 W · 74 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No62c443.93$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.0361760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes3c426.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.071,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a15…32dcbacked Yes11c408.64$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c400.7$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.511,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf911…8d8ebacked Yes14c393.35$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510246.1%47 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No58c388.71$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.0432548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes35c345.36$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.261,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a91…983fbacked Yes39c321.5$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.313942.4%59 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f33…8da9backed Yes19c315.3$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.719944.4%44 W · 55 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+25.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes16c304.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9454037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e63…e468backed No64c289.56$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.31475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes33c278.72$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.176538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde81…c5dbbacked Yes37c270.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes23c263.37$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.416924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes45c256.91$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0110531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes12c253.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.311,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes16c236.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.189262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed No78c230.74$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7627246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes40c202.52$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1511359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes7c199.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac6…b663backed Yes10c194.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.56741.8%28 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Yes52c188.62$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9913946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes14c184.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1192…634cbacked Yes54c183.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked No75c182.28$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.18933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes7c170$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.611,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f7…7df6backed Yes8c169.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.961330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa395…59cabacked Yes34c164.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x385e…0341backed Yes15c156.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes15c153.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2427560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes36c149$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.327737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes61c148.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes69c141.56$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1433058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes14c141.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes36c140.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.172,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e97…72a5backed Yes13c139.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Yes7c137.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.258017.5%14 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes15c137.31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.522,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Yes39c136.49$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.93056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes14c130$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.21,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes17c130$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.192028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef5e…7bb7backed Yes29c127.41$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes9c122$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9836123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes11c120$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.221919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da3…a83dbacked Yes56c119.79$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes24c116.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.255839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes13c115$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.257823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1c9…1936backed Yes11c113.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.36742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed Yes13c113.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.884852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes32c111$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1916036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes32c111$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8435432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17a2…242abacked Yes15c109.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes50c105.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.282240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes10c104.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10277.4%2 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-85.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No73c102.9$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1544553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa70…4159backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa916…8002backed Yes11c99.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.351145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No30c99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.312744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda6f…1313backed Yes18c93.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.92540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes35c92.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.737950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes12c85.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes40c79.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.116258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes59c76.51$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0331649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0467…846fbacked Yes27c75.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes27c75.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.963333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes55c72.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes18c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.618842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes22c66.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.73342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd2a…22b9backed Yes17c63.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.811931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a6b…6c65backed Yes36c55.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+124.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes42c53.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.11,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xece5…c252backed Yes44c50.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.942065%13 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78bd…15edbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.751030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-41.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5eee…bac2backed Yes57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.56045%27 W · 33 L-6.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a34…905fbacked Yes67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.550%0 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d92…ab61backed Yes37c45.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.591241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ae…b4b9backed Yes47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0782…8376backed Yes33c36.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e66…96c1backed No62c35.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.62450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d3…03b5backed Yes35c34.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x609f…ada6backed Yes58c34.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.