Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57ae15f5744f1290dc43943baca11f7e0b04ecd5b173e08cabf6b688b2189157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 38c | 2,942$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 1c | 999.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 13c | 434.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 272.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…dc8bbacked No | 70c | 241.51$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…f7d4backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 61c | 190$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 11c | 184.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 29c | 181.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa387…3aadbacked No | 79c | 174.66$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 60c | 152.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 151.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 40c | 145.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 127.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 34c | 126.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 8c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…a2b1backed No | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed No | 65c | 104.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 102.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…0274backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…b5c4backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed Yes | 40c | 98.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…3679backed No | 68c | 86.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 61c | 84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed No | 61c | 58.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…8fd9backed No | 63c | 50.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ca…3f6ebacked Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 31c | 45.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 73c | 43.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0f…5ea4backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 62c | 37.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabba…58bbbacked No | 63c | 37.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 78c | 36.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…0cd3backed Yes | 43c | 35.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 33.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 70c | 32.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 61c | 31.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…65dcbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…97a7backed Yes | 39c | 28.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…9dbfbacked No | 61c | 23.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…a6a4backed No | 70c | 23.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 18.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…b5a7backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 75c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.