Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x201d85ded5e512b037147b731b9d41eac6891ebb6619755512b336e6ebacd3d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 1c | 3,695$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,655.49 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed No | 9c | 2,583$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.84 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 2,182$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.19 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +733.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 25c | 2,025$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.28 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960.41 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,788$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.74 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 1,603$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 66c | 1,514$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.36 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 3c | 1,504$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.64 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,304$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.09 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 3c | 922.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.13 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 882.85$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.8 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 32c | 874.15$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 791.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.37 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 26c | 781.67$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.94 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 7c | 737.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 1c | 732.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.31 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 727.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.39 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…3246backed No | 15c | 584.28$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 22c | 577.3$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed No | 14c | 536.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked No | 2c | 521.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 5c | 515.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.71 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 9c | 434.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.82 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 12c | 400$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2a…22b9backed No | 57c | 393.58$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.32 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0d…9f26backed Yes | 6c | 375.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +308%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…c535backed Yes | 24c | 251.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 41c | 239.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.64 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Yes | 28c | 201.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.83 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6b…6c65backed Yes | 8c | 200.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004a…fb69backed Yes | 29c | 192.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.68 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 47c | 185.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…b277backed No | 16c | 184.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 8c | 181.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 72c | 149.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 19c | 110.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…846fbacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 67c | 74.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 78c | 69.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed No | 31c | 65.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 40c | 52.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…15edbacked No | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed No | 77c | 41.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 77c | 40.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x231a…7d04backed No | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f7…b205backed No | 49c | 37.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…a83dbacked Yes | 73c | 33.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…11f4backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…8e69backed No | 79c | 28.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8faf…d8cdbacked Yes | 58c | 27.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fb…94e2backed No | 75c | 26.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…a6a4backed Yes | 70c | 26.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…e009backed No | 75c | 21.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.