Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83efae5cab9bf53dc624709673fcfe3b95449eef1bf6ae73ae2569c0b8149925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 69c | 852.07$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.23 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 32c | 818.07$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.28 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 781.91$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 514.83$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 30c | 402.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.79 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 370.15$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.31 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 31c | 320.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 276.35$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 214$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 30c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 175.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 160.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 118.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 20c | 115.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 105.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 33c | 102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 101.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 98.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 32c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 73.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 71.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 71.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 65.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed No | 67c | 64.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 63.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…56e0backed Yes | 27c | 51.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 25c | 51.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 47.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…5115backed Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed Yes | 30c | 45.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…ea97backed Yes | 33c | 44.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 40.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 67c | 40.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 40.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes | 35c | 39.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…bb96backed No | 69c | 38.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x03ad…dfbdbacked No | 69c | 33.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 33c | 32.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 34c | 31.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…cf25backed No | 67c | 31.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…1ccfbacked No | 80c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944f…83d3backed No | 68c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 66c | 27.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 25.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x780d…3e2dbacked No | 68c | 24.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 19.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 67c | 16.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.