Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb529462daa1c3996280cfffe475c01d3670d326bfab53d5db02e79f95a9cbec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 38c | 1,222$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.32 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 38c | 484.3$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.27 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 402.87$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 37c | 400.14$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.1 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 54c | 370.22$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.17 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 60c | 333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.58 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 52c | 320.52$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 69c | 295$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 247.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 220.85$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 50c | 219.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 24c | 208.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 194.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 188.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 32c | 188.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed No | 27c | 158$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 37c | 151.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.01 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 66c | 150.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 146.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 66c | 136.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 69c | 131.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 128.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 38c | 127$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 63c | 126.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 65c | 118.13$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 67c | 114$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 111.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 99.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 96.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 35c | 92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 42c | 89.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 32c | 86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 32c | 85.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 33c | 77.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 35c | 77.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 66c | 76.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 63c | 75.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 32c | 72.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 38c | 70.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 70.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 35c | 69.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 67.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yes | 53c | 66.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 65.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 65.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 65.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked No | 44c | 65.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 32c | 56.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 35c | 56.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 56.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 52.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 51.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 63c | 50.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 35c | 49.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 38c | 48.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 47.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 71c | 46.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 45.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 42c | 43.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 36c | 41.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 68c | 41.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 40.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 38.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…329abacked No | 66c | 37.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…ea97backed Yes | 40c | 35.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…35d0backed Yes | 56c | 35.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…362bbacked No | 65c | 33.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 52c | 32.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 65c | 30.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked Yes | 35c | 28.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 35c | 28.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 23.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 56c | 23.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 65c | 21.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 65c | 21.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 61c | 20.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 63c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.