Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2942c4db6a60e33323fd4f97dec2e2b881ab8feba0234eb416835b540b4af3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9a3…8e60backed Yes | 40c | 1,881$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 1,413$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.65 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 6c | 999.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 557$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 37c | 531.2$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.07 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 433.3$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 71c | 385.33$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.89 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 369.71$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 368.01$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 342.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 336.83$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 30c | 332.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.31 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 286.19$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 32c | 257.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 37c | 255.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.23 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 29c | 248.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 221$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.81 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 220.85$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 211.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.83 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 204$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 39c | 171.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 169.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 60c | 167.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 163.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 31c | 142.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 141.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 127.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 37c | 127$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 122.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 116.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 111$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 105.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 103.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 102.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 98.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 22c | 97.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 70c | 91.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 55c | 91.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 63c | 87.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 27c | 87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 34c | 84.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 54c | 83.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 58c | 79.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 32c | 75.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 41c | 74.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 72.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…054abacked Yes | 34c | 72.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 39c | 71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 62c | 70.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 68.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 66.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 38c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 72c | 56.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 55.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 29c | 54.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 61c | 54.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 71c | 49.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 71c | 48.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked No | 57c | 47.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked No | 55c | 46.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 23c | 45.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 44.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 64c | 43.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 37.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 62c | 36.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 33c | 36.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 36c | 34.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…1ef9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 71c | 28.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 39c | 27.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 26.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 25.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 47c | 25.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 66c | 23.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 20.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 60c | 16.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.