TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,410 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes51c3,464$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.2631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c1,581$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.451,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No26c625.1$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.954,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No66c612.94$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.142,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes28c568.66$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.088,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No64c404.94$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.3455954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No64c340$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.663255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No55c340$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.594,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No50c306.9$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.681,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No53c298.6$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.395,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No39c230.15$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.154,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c217.19$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No60c212.63$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.554,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No64c209$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.763,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No16c190$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.996,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes23c183.03$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9417536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c166$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.783,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x341b…b929backed Yes64c156.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.85666.1%37 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffc5…67a5backed Yes39c149.7$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.038333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No50c149.15$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.662,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No59c139.93$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.914,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes36c138.79$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.371,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7247…ecb6backed Yes67c137.56$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.895024%12 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No46c110$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.951,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No46c107.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.621,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No49c105.8$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9664859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5075546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5685049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6217255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No55c98.4$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7853855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes53c97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.65,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd10d…8f16backed No63c94.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.641040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No74c93.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes62c86.17$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6316532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes48c85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.451,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No65c84.12$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4194552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No64c84$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No66c84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked No62c83.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.418862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c80$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.63,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No76c74.62$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.364,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes63c71.65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8334151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No47c70.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.31,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa89b…ea97backed Yes35c70.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.741172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No52c65.2$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes36c64.8$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.472326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes52c64.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7813838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No49c60.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6549551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No49c57.95$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe37a…844dbacked No75c55.49$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6212876.6%98 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No25c54.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.722,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c53.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.973,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No52c53.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.81,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No64c53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.982,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39be…aac9backed Yes39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.283855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c50.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.934,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes33c49.55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.272837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No50c48.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.222,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes63c46.84$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No59c45.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8130849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No43c45.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.59,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No62c45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2890555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No61c45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.65,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No52c43.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.411,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7406…162bbacked No69c42.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.211450%7 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No74c42.24$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.446667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a2…a1a7backed Yes37c40.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04bd…8de9backed No69c40.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.981533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-44.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No64c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.427056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No39c38.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.072,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c38.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0183360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No56c37.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0580957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes56c36.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.291,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No53c32.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.071,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No55c32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc036…2b99backed No65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205664.3%36 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick71cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No42c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.453,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee66…b679backed No39c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No79c27.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0626458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No64c27.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7587629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No64c27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.284,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f7…b1a8backed No64c27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.26566.2%43 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x023c…99a0backed Yes58c24.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.421656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No79c23.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5842976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849b…0543backed No66c21.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.961145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No56c21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7619648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No79c20.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.881,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.689544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c18.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.95,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No63c18.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.732,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e8…f207backed No64c17.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.084667.4%31 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ece…1949backed No63c16.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.317361.8%107 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No75c14.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.781,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No73c13.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.288973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.