Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03ffe6e1310771a337a9090791fe020ca2c876e4b5497cf2870f3c43482bf650
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,020$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.1 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 662.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 608.75$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.25 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 26c | 544.65$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 302.86$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 298.6$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 21c | 240.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes | 43c | 207.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 199.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 196.73$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 177$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 167.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 60c | 141.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 32c | 140.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 139.93$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 133.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 123$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 120.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 116.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 114.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 75c | 104.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 38c | 104.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 64c | 98.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 95.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 93.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 91.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 90.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 80.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 75.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 65.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 28c | 58.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 55.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 51.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 42c | 49.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 49.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 57c | 46.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 58c | 44.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 26c | 42.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 61c | 42.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 57c | 40.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 36.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 60c | 33.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 44c | 28.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 77c | 28.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 58c | 28.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…d22cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 22.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 18.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 18.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 17.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 62c | 16.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked No | 79c | 15.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 78c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 112°F or higher on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.