Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaa4de9417c35a16385be503c26ce7d13a675a6634b755c875cf87aac283296b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 711.91$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 19c | 203.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 29c | 197.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 185.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 162.28$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 159.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 158.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 143.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 132.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 127$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 33c | 125.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 44c | 123.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 113.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 19c | 107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 21c | 101$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1,065 | 35.1%374 W · 691 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c74…01c3backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 97.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 67c | 93.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 90.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 81.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 74.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 72.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 69.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 30c | 66.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 73c | 65.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…9d10backed No | 59c | 65.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 38c | 60.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 58.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 46c | 55.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 424 | 47.9%203 W · 221 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 55.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 23c | 54.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 56c | 54.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0827…cdcfbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 21c | 49.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 22c | 49.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,026 | 25%256 W · 770 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 77c | 49.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 62c | 48.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 268 | 63.1%169 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 47.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,597 | 78.6%1,255 W · 342 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 42.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef4…de94backed Yes | 39c | 41.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 40.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 37.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 37.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 36.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…ea97backed No | 70c | 35.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 31.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 333 | 39.6%132 W · 201 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 29.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 41c | 29.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 212 | 52.8%112 W · 100 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0073…4cd5backed No | 69c | 28.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 76c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c10…5269backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 67c | 24.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…61babacked No | 70c | 24.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…aceabacked No | 69c | 21.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 51c | 20.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 508 | 60.8%309 W · 199 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 17.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 69c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ad…dfbdbacked No | 71c | 14.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 74c | 14.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…5ddfbacked No | 71c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C or higher on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.