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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes23c711.91$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.618,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes19c203.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8830332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes29c197.38$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5735325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No73c185.14$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.993,13949.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No76c162.28$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.132,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes8c159.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.346,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c158.54$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.199,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c143.7$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.515,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes7c143$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.019735.1%34 W · 63 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No62c132.11$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0810,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No60c127$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.634,31353.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L+158.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes33c125.76$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8147047.2%222 W · 248 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes44c123.81$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c113.39$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.136,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed Yes19c107$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.179038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes21c101$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.131,06535.1%374 W · 691 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c74…01c3backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47e6…6505backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252536%9 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+105.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No53c97.98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.812,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No67c93.8$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.221,18457.4%680 W · 504 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c90.03$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5310,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c90$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.595,48956%3,075 W · 2,414 L-123.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes25c90$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8893837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No47c81.46$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0617747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No75c74.04$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.555,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes33c73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.312,75729.7%819 W · 1,938 L-1.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes45c72.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.795,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c69.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.293,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes30c66.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f4…f04cbacked No73c65.57$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9719838.9%77 W · 121 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7529…9d10backed No59c65.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.792236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No57c65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9563757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes38c60.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7188150.5%445 W · 436 L-3.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5385548.7%416 W · 439 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes38c59.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.840535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No59c58.85$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8883459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes46c55.91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2642447.9%203 W · 221 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c55.81$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.644,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes23c54.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91,17840.6%478 W · 700 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No56c54.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.031,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No71c52$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0858053.4%310 W · 270 L-26.4wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,02340.1%410 W · 613 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.512,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0827…cdcfbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.05837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6300…41adbacked Yes21c49.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.492842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes22c49.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.161,02625%256 W · 770 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No77c49.7$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6538860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No75c49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.252,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed No62c48.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8226863.1%169 W · 99 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No71c47.86$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.651,59778.6%1,255 W · 342 L+41.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No73c45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.192,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.552,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No68c42.36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5693461.8%577 W · 357 L+2.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdef4…de94backed Yes39c41.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No47c40.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6516847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes49c40.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010746.7%50 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No56c37.83$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.742,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No68c37.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c36.74$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.623,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa89b…ea97backed No70c35.61$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.681172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No69c31.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.771,55456.7%881 W · 673 L-83.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes45c30.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.384,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes38c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5433339.6%132 W · 201 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No75c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.62,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes38c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No68c29.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4865965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes41c29.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221252.8%112 W · 100 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.544,62758.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L-114.2wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0073…4cd5backed No69c28.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.811258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No46c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.072,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc29…66b4backed No76c26.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.325448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No50c26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.942,28657.3%1,309 W · 977 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c10…5269backed No61c24.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.591637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No67c24.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1586952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e1…61babacked No70c24.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.331181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+45.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No66c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4821451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b7…aceabacked No69c21.01$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.511163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No51c20.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9650860.8%309 W · 199 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No67c17.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.717,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No62c16.13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.137967.1%53 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No69c14.92$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6370675.5%533 W · 173 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ad…dfbdbacked No71c14.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.181675%12 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+27.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No74c14.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6246549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fa…5ddfbacked No71c14.1$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.092161.9%13 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick70cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.